Prelude to History?
I suppose I should feel good about this. The anticipation of a Federer/Nadal matchup in the French Open final is so hyped, so anticipated, they mentioned it on Pardon the Interruption. Michael Wilbon said he was excited for the potential matchup, adding "Roger has no chance against Nadal." Brad Gilbert has gone so far as to suggest the only reason the tournament is worth watching is the promise of a Federer-Nadal final.
So be it. But does Rogi really stand no chance against Rafa? Is the gap between these two on clay that wide? Perhaps it is to the untrained eye, but anyone that has been following these two knows Nadal has been the only thing between Roger and the Roland Garros title. Unless, of course, you think Mariano Puerta would have beaten him in last year's final.
Nadal's 5-1 record against Federer is well-documented. People have been saying Roger has been getting closer every time, but I'm not so sure. The only straight set win between the two was in their first match against each other, a 6-3, 6-3 Nadal triumph in Key Biscayne. Since then, there was the 2005 Ky Biscayne final that Roger won in five (but Rafa with two points from winning), last year's right French semifinal, and this year's finals in Dubai, Rome, and Monte Carlo. They have all been close.
The only thing this suggests is that we're in for a tight match. I don't think it will be a five-hour affair; someone is going to emerge from this. But who? Both men come into this with so much riding on it, it's incredible. Federer is 7-0 in major finals and has that little 27-match winning streak in the Grand Slams going. Nadal hasn't lost in Paris, and he hasn't lost to Roger this year. He has a little streak of his own going as well. So something has to give here.
For Nadal, the early concern was that he was spending too much time on court after lengthy battles against Mathieu and Hewitt. Shorter affairs with Djokovic and Ljubicic have removed that concern, though Rafael might be able to run the Ironman Triathlon and pick up his Babolat afterwards.
Federer has to be a bit more troubled with the way Nalbandian made him look ordinary early on Friday. In fact, he got spanked. The Argentine came out and took the world #1 by storm, breezing through the first set with a double break. Federer regrouped in time for Nalbandian to quit, but he did not look good in his abbreviated match. Nadal, on the other hand, was sharp in dismissing Ljubicic in straights.
There's enough to suggest either guy will win. Federer has been untouchable in the finals of majors; nobody has taken more than a set from him in one. Nadal's run in Paris is extraordinary; at no point has he looked like he was going to lose a match. So where do we find the telling factors? The weather looks like it'll be in the high-80s, which would help Federer. On the other hand, the weight of the pressure of history is firmly on his shoulders. If he beats Nadal, he likely has the calendar Grand Slam in hand. That's a huge mental burden to overcome. Rafa just wants to go out there and battle. He's the defending champion, and he goes out there with the mindset that you have to beat him and he'll go down fighting to his last breath.
Roger always has risen to the occasion. Nadal always has outclassed his opponents. However, Rafael has the Lleyton Hewitt factor on his side. Therefore, he will win in four sets.
So be it. But does Rogi really stand no chance against Rafa? Is the gap between these two on clay that wide? Perhaps it is to the untrained eye, but anyone that has been following these two knows Nadal has been the only thing between Roger and the Roland Garros title. Unless, of course, you think Mariano Puerta would have beaten him in last year's final.
Nadal's 5-1 record against Federer is well-documented. People have been saying Roger has been getting closer every time, but I'm not so sure. The only straight set win between the two was in their first match against each other, a 6-3, 6-3 Nadal triumph in Key Biscayne. Since then, there was the 2005 Ky Biscayne final that Roger won in five (but Rafa with two points from winning), last year's right French semifinal, and this year's finals in Dubai, Rome, and Monte Carlo. They have all been close.
The only thing this suggests is that we're in for a tight match. I don't think it will be a five-hour affair; someone is going to emerge from this. But who? Both men come into this with so much riding on it, it's incredible. Federer is 7-0 in major finals and has that little 27-match winning streak in the Grand Slams going. Nadal hasn't lost in Paris, and he hasn't lost to Roger this year. He has a little streak of his own going as well. So something has to give here.
For Nadal, the early concern was that he was spending too much time on court after lengthy battles against Mathieu and Hewitt. Shorter affairs with Djokovic and Ljubicic have removed that concern, though Rafael might be able to run the Ironman Triathlon and pick up his Babolat afterwards.
Federer has to be a bit more troubled with the way Nalbandian made him look ordinary early on Friday. In fact, he got spanked. The Argentine came out and took the world #1 by storm, breezing through the first set with a double break. Federer regrouped in time for Nalbandian to quit, but he did not look good in his abbreviated match. Nadal, on the other hand, was sharp in dismissing Ljubicic in straights.
There's enough to suggest either guy will win. Federer has been untouchable in the finals of majors; nobody has taken more than a set from him in one. Nadal's run in Paris is extraordinary; at no point has he looked like he was going to lose a match. So where do we find the telling factors? The weather looks like it'll be in the high-80s, which would help Federer. On the other hand, the weight of the pressure of history is firmly on his shoulders. If he beats Nadal, he likely has the calendar Grand Slam in hand. That's a huge mental burden to overcome. Rafa just wants to go out there and battle. He's the defending champion, and he goes out there with the mindset that you have to beat him and he'll go down fighting to his last breath.
Roger always has risen to the occasion. Nadal always has outclassed his opponents. However, Rafael has the Lleyton Hewitt factor on his side. Therefore, he will win in four sets.
Labels: Grand Slams
Served Up by Monty at 6/11/2006 02:32:00 AM
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