You Know What Be Great? A Roof

Three matches today. Three. That's it. This is about the worst time possible for a washout, as tomorrow is Middle Sunday, which means no play. Of course, if the tournament directors had any sense at all, they'd have play. But they don't, so there won't be any. Whatever. I'm sure we'll all enjoy Jimmy Robert's yammering.

Then Again, Maybe Not

Well, Thursday's action is in the books, and I pretty much feel like an idiot. I don't think I hit on anything except for Gasquet moving into the final 16. Just how wrong was I?
Firstly, I said Safin would give Roger a match. That turned out to be false, as Federer brushed the Russian aside, 1, 4, and 6. Safin didn't even look like he was on the came court until the final set, when he finally started to go blow-to-blow with the Vogue coverboy. Roger, though, was locked in from the first point. His focus was a stark contrast to Safin's wandering temper (and racquets). By the time Marat finally got into the match, it was already too late. Federer put on a clinic, winning 88% of points on his first serve. He continues to not be interested in volleying, only going to the net 16 times. However, he won 13 of those approaches. Once again, people think someone will step up and challenge the king, and he merely swats them away. It's incredible. He hasn't even had to breathe hard in years in England.

Also, I thought Blake would have gotten by Ferrero, but that didn't turn out as well. On one hand, it's nice to see JC really playing well again, but it's just as dismaying to see Blake lose the way he did. Once again, James moped around the court during the last two sets, basically giving up. You'd think a guy in the top 10 would hold himself higher, but confidence deficeits have plagued James forever. Patrick McEnroe rightfully called him out on ESPN. James has absolutely no reason to act like that on the court, especially when he could have won the match. He's never been a big factor outside of hard courts, but that's not an excuse.

Remember when I said Roddick/Verdasco had five sets written all over it? Yeah, didn't happen. Impressive display from Roddick in that match. Janko tipped (pun intended) Gonzalez in five, setting up an interesting affair with Ferrero in the next round.

And lastly, Feliciano Lopez got waxed by Tsonga. I did not see that coming at all. I'm almost afraid to see how wrong I can be tomorrow.

So Far, So Good

The first four days of The Championships featured little in the way of surprises, and that's just the way I like it. Some people have been complaining about the lack of upsets and compelling first round matchups, but who wants the appetizer to be the best part of the meal? With the first weekend coming to a close, we're just now getting to the juicy steak of the competition. It has shaped up to be an exciting third round. Let's look at what we have.
Firstly, I'm getting what I wanted when the draw came out last week: The Feder-Bear versus the mercurial Marat in the third round. Safin has not looked overly impressive in his first two matches, even though they were both straight set affairs. Federer, meanwhile, really looked locked in against Del Potro, who I thought could give the #1 seed problems. And he really looks spiffy in that white and gold shirt Nike is outfitting him in.

These observations notwithstanding, I still think Safin can give Federer a run for his money tomorrow on the roofless Centre Court. At this point, Marat is the kind of guy that needs external motivation; he can't get himself up for matches. Roger in the tennis cathedral is going to get him going. He plays Federer very tough, and even Roger acknowledged that he has the ability to hit the Swiss off the court. Needless to say, I'm excited. I don't expect Marat to win- he hates grass enough it provides a convenient excuse for a loss- but it wouldn't surprise me.

James Blake is on track to get waxed by Federer in the quarters; he's looked solid thus far and shouldn't have too much problem with Ferrero. Provided he doesn't, he'll face the winner of Tipsarevic and Gonzalez. I originally thought Gonzalez would take care of Janko easily, but I've since changed my mind. It is, after all, the year of the Serb, and Gonzalez is as unpredictable as anyone. I still think Gonzo will win, but it could be a tight affair.

Andy Roddick has a pretty tough pairing with the lefty Verdasco. This has five sets written all over it. And there could be 100 or more combined aces. Fernando will be a good early test for Andy, but the winner of Mathieu-Ljubicic won't be (I like the Frenchman in that one).

There's a lot of French guys in the remaining 32 in the men's draw. Has anyone noticed this? We can't be OK with this. Two of them, Richard Gasquet and Edouard Roger-vasselin, square off on Court 3. First of all, Edouard has one of the weirdest names I've ever seen. Seriously, his parents should be fined. That's terrible. But hey, maybe Gasquet is finally going to make a major move like everyone has been waiting for. He is 21 now; it's time for him to step up if he's going to. He should be able to get past Edouard.

Finally, the bane of the United Kingdom, Feliciano Lopez, takes on yet another Frenchman, Jo-Wilifred Tsonga (what is with the French names?). I gotta take Lopez in that one, and I'm officially giving him "darkhorse" status. He's one to watch.

Saturday's matches look even more enticing, but this ain't a bad first Friday at all. The expanded seeding has done just what it is supposed to, protecting the better players longer in the tournaments. We all benefit from this in the long run. Of the final 32 players, 22 are seeded. The cream is rising to the top.

Henman's marathon win

I noticed something today while watching the first round match between Tim Henman and Carlos Moya. Tim Henman looked good.

He beat the No. 26 seed Moya, which might sound decent for an aging Henman, but remember that Moya is a dirt baller who wasn't really expected to do well on the grass courts. On the other hand, Henman has always player well on the surface, especially at the Slam known as Wimbledon.

The statistics, though, show an almost dead heat between the two players in the four-hour 11-minute match, which had a nearly two-hour fifth set that ended in a 13-11 triumph for the Brit.

Both men had the same first serve percentage and nearly won the exact same percentage of points, whether on first or second serve. Henman had fewer aces and more errors.

But with the Henmaniacs at Wimbledon rooting him on, he has nothing to lose, and two other statistics show it.

He had three aces in one game of the fifth set at 11-11, escaping two break points with aces; he finished with 10. He turned it on when he had to, which he's done remarkably for years when he was England's only hope to win Wimbledon.

What is even more impressive is the how well the 32-year-old Henman can still move. While he and Moya both won only 59 percent of their net approaches, Henman seemed to be comfortable there, and that can make a huge difference, especially when it comes to winners totals. Henman went to the net 100 times in match, almost 30 percent of all points. this serve-and-volley style is what many multiple title winners such as Borg and Sampras have done to win. Amelie Mauresmo did it to win last year.

The main thing isn't that Henman will win Wimbledon (though he has two possible wins coming up against Feliciano Lopez and either Nicolas Lapentti or Jo-Wifried Tsonga). What we know is that when likely faces Richard Gasquet in the round of 16, he will be able to play winning tennis on the grass how it's supposed to be played, with a calm look and a nice net return for a winner.

Guillermo Coria is Through With Vitamins

Guillermo Coria and Universal Nutrition settled Coria's lawsuit Wednesday rather quietly, with Coria being awarded an unspecified amount. Coria sued for steroids he claimed were in the vitamins he took, resulting in a positive drug test and seven-month suspension. Personally, he should've sued for not putting more steroids in the pills, as he couldn't finish a five-set match without cramping or getting exhausted half the time.

Murray Out

Andy Murray has withdrawn from Wimbledon with his wrist still bothering him. This is sure to go over horribly in Britain, but Andy made the right choice here. You don't want to mess around with the wrist, and the risks far outweighed the potential benefits here. Look for him to have a strong summer hardcourt season, as he'll be fully healed. Either way, Kevin Kim, who replaces Andy in the draw, owes him a fruit basket.

The Federer Invitational

Did you know? This tournament used to be called Wimbledon. Now a mere 21 sets separates Roger from Bjorn Borg's five consecutive titles at the All-England Club. Seven men stand in his way to try and derail him. Will the Swiss star stake a further claim to history at The Championships? Can Novak Djokovic continue his ascent in the men's game? Will Roddick finally break through? Let's wade through the men's draw.
Color me disappointed Roddick drew Federer's half of the draw. I can't be the only one that wanted to see a Nadal-Roddick showdown on Centre Court. We all know the tune of a Federer-Roddick match. And I promise, you won't hear any "This is Roddick's best chance to beat Federer" claims like you do everywhere else if Andy rolls through his quarter of the draw (Well, maybe Ben might. He keeps telling me Andy is going to do it). Roddick's quarter is relatively harmless; Ljubicic lurks as a possible fourth-round opponent, and Gasquet could finally get it together at a major and reach the quarters. However, Roddick should have little problem getting to another Wimby semifinal in his quest to lose as many times as possible to one guy.

Speaking of Federer, interestingly, some possible early-round match ups could present more trouble than later ones. Rising Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro could wait in the second round. You may remember him as the guy who served for the first set against Nadal in the opening round of the French Open. Don't let his country of origin fool you- he's a big boy and a thumper who is likely to have greater success on faster courts. The 18-year-old has risen to 55th in the rankings and has never faced Federer. Roger skipped Halle this year to pout, so he could very well catch a rusty Roger at the perfect time. And maybe Bjorn will have a dog bite him.

And look who is a possible third round obstacle: Marat Safin! It's just as likely he loses as it is he makes to the third round, but he always brings it against Federer, and you can bet Roger was not happy to see the Russian Roulette so close to him in the draw. Marat has the best chance of anyone to beat Federer at this tournament. If he feels like it, that is. The rest of the quarter looks completely nonthreatening to Federer.

Dynamic Serb Novak Djokovic has the hardest quarter of the top four seeds. Ivo Karlovic could wait in the third round, and that's a guy nobody wants to face on the sod. If not Karlovic, it could be Nicolas Kiefer, who gives top players fits. It doesn't get any easier. The fourth round includes Hewitt, Canas, and Max Mirnyi as possible opponents. He could see former finalist Nalbandian or Marco Baghdatis in the quarters. Novak has some choppy waters to navigate if he wants to climb into the #3 ranking.

With Roddick on the other half of the draw, things are shaping up nicely for Rafael Nadal to position himself for another run to the finals. He could run into Sebastien Grosjean in the third round, who can test him. Youzhny is little threat as a possible fourth round match. Berdych in the quarters could be a very entertaining match.

Tough luck draw: Robby Ginepri getting Fernando Gonzalez. The 2005 US Open semifinalist has really fallen fast and hard (injuries haven't helped). He could be headed for another quick exit. But Gonzo is just as likely to implode as to explode...

First round match I really want to see: Fabrice Santoro vs Ivo Karlovic. If you want a contrast in styles, you won't find a bigger one. Fabrice is a tricksy hobbit with every shot in the book (and a few that aren't in the book), while Ivo is a towering figure with one shot only. Of course, living in America, there is approximately -500% chance I'll get to see this.

Upset Alert: Mardy Fish vs Rafael Nadal. Yes, I'm really going out on a limb here, especially after Mardy found a creative way to miss the French, most likely costing himself a seed in the process, and Nadal looked pretty good at Queen's Club (remember, he lost in the quarters there last year, too). But hear me out: I think Mardy can pull this off he gets to the net as much as possible and exposes Rafa's backhand, which is anything but steady on this surface. If his serve is working, he's slicing a lot, and he's moving forward, he can make things very uncomfortable for Rafa.

Breakthrough player: Gael Monfils. Why not? He's been to the third round at SW19 before, and his draw is quite friendly. He has a solid chance of making it to the second week, maybe even the quarterfinals.

Bold prediction: I'll be annoyed with NBC approximately 16 seconds into their first broadcast when Jimmy Roberts shows his face.

Thoughts on the Women's Draw

Justine Henin’s bracket: Henin has a more difficult draw than at first notice. Patty Schnyder lies waiting in the Round of 16, if she can make it that far. Schnyder has only made it to the third round once at Wimbledon (in 2001), but played well during the clay-court season and at Roland Garros. Henin holds a 7-1 record over her, but all matches on fast surfaces have gone to three sets. Henin then has Serena Williams, which could be a loss in itself. Both Williams sisters dominate in England, even without playing warm-ups. The surprise in this bracket might be Katarina Srebotnik. She has world No. 412 Elena Baltacha in the first round and likely Anna-Lena Groenfeld (who is 4-11 this year and has dropped 90 spots in the ranking since January). Her showdown will be with Serena, and Serena will probably own her. Serena and sister Venus are playing doubles this year and that will either energize or wear out the sisters. Winner of this quarterfinal is Serena, who will leave Henin winless at the All-England Club: 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Jelena Jankovic’s bracket: Jankovic is the hottest player on the WTA Tour right now, having advanced to the semis on the red clay of Paris and last week beat Maria Sharapova at Birmingham. She is also first in the race this year, but that’s inflated by her 16 tournament appearances. There aren’t any big hurdles for her until Eleni Daniilidou in the third round, who ousted Henin in the first round in ’05. Even with Daniilidou making the third round, Jankovic is too much at this point in the year, and with either a weak grass player in Anna Chakvetadze or a struggling Martina Hingis, who has already lost to Jankovic this year and who’s last title was in Tokyo in February. Jankovic goes to the semis with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Hingis.

Ameile Mauresmo’s bracket: This is the most stacked part of the draw. There’s Nadia Petrova, always a force on any surface; Francesca Schiavone, a good ball-striker who has just never had success on grass; Anabel Medina-Garrigues, who has always played well against this quarter’s favorites, Ana Ivanovic and Mauresmo. Not to mention former top 25 player Shenay Perry, Sania Mirza and No. 14-seed Nicole Vaidasova are in this bracket too. When this all filters out though, it will be either Ivanovic or Petrova, probably Ivanovic, because she’s been playing well of late, against Mauresmo. That match will be a toss up, but the defending champ will win in three sets, 7-6, 4-6, 7-5.

Maria Sharapova’s bracket: Maria has the easiest trip to the semis, as long as Venus doesn’t get in her way in the Round of 16. The top part of the bracket is filled with the likes of an inconsistent Svetlana Kuznetzova and soft-serving Elena Dementieva. So whoever wins the match between Sharapova and Venus will make the semis. In the match that matters I pick a rested Sharapova over an uninterested Venus 6-4, 6-3. Sharapova will relax after that match, though, and drop a set in a wake-up match against Kuznetzova 6-2, 5-7, 6-1.

Semifinal 1: Serena Williams has already recorded a slam this year and has taken plenty of time off to rest. She is 22-4 this year, with most of her bad losses on clay. On the other side is Jankovic, who couldn’t be in this situation at a better time. Serena owned grass for a while a few years ago, but has she been back long enough to hang in with Jankovic? Will Jankovic be fatigued after all of her playing? Can she overcome Serena’s power, placement and backhand? Jankovic will get nervous, just like she did against Henin, and although Serena won’t play her best match, she’ll do just enough to make it look close, but win comfortably, 7-5, 6-4.

Semifinal 2: An untested Sharapova will get her first real match against Mauresmo. This will mark the third time in five majors that the two will have met in the semifinals, splitting the past two as Mauresmo won on the way to the Wimbledon title last year and Sharapova won the semi and the final in New York. Sharapova will be playing her best tennis of the tournament in what should go down as a classic match. Power against power, Sharapova 7-5, 6-7, 7-5.

Final: Sharapova and Serena meet again in a rematch of this year’s Aussie Open. It looks like more of the same as Sharapova has a letdown and Serena just does what she always does, win. In a relatively unexciting match, Serena takes her third Wimbledon and her eighth Grand Slam, 6-3, 6-2.

Planting the Seeds

The seedings for Wimbledon were announced today, and they bear a striking resemblance to the ATP rankings. The top three remain unchanged- I'm sure Andy's thrilled- and Tomas Berdych made the biggest leap of anyone, jumping from 11 to 7. Yep, the biggest move was a whopping four spots. Nikolay Davydenko, with his career 1-5 record in the tournament, is ranked sixth.
Once, the releasing the seeds for the tournament was actually kind of exciting, because we could expect to see some different numbers next to some people than we normally would. The radically different seeds are part of what made Wimbledon stand out in the tennis world. No longer is this the case.As we're so often told, grass is different. It's a one-month anomaly, an odd transition from the crushed brick to the painted asphalt- and an abrupt one at that. Big men with big serves cut a swatch through the draw on a regular basis, a shooting star never to be seen again (remember Vladimir Voltchkov?). Ivo Karlovic makes ranked players sweat in their sleep.

And it really is different. As well-manicured as a grass court can be, it's still the most inconsistent surface on the tour. Balls can bounce in unpredictable ways. They skid. They slide. They rarely reach your shoulder off a bounce. Slice becomes a bigger weapon, topspin a weaker one. So yes, the All-England Club is absolutely right in adjusting the seeds. Roddick deserves to be the second seed, for instance.

And a few years ago, he probably would have been. But for whatever reason, the club caved to the Spanish-speaking complainers and started making compromises. Why would you listen to the demands of a group of players that didn't stick around past the first week if they even showed at all? What sense does that make? Taking the top 32-ranked players and guaranteeing them seeds is a good compromise. But they've watered it down to some formula that really doesn't make much of a difference anymore. I'm sure Lleyton Hewitt is really thankful his past success bumped him up to the 16 spot. He must be thrilled.

The subjective seeding should return. And if some players don't like it, they should try and overcome their grass allergies. Players who have been successful on grass should be rewarded, and players who suck on it should be punished. I should note that I am of the opinion that all of the Grand Slam tournament should seed subjectively, but it seems easiest to institute it at Wimbledon.

Here They Go Again

From the pleasant surprise file, the Williams sisters have accepted a wild card into the Wimbledon doubles. The two haven't played as a pair in four years when they lost in the round of 16 to Elena Dementieva and Lina Krasnorutskaya.

This news is a shot in the arm to the event, especially after a French Open with virtually no excitement or compelling action. Win or lose, the sisters of slam are fun to watch together (when they're not playing each other). I have no idea whether or not they're a title threat; 2003 was the last doubles venture for either of them and Venus hasn't looked good at all this year. One the other hand, the Williamses do own a career Grand Slam, including two Wimbledon trophies. As rusty as they might be, they cannot be discounted.

More importantly, it's bound to give doubles a little air time, provided they survive the first couple rounds. Now, can we get some of that love extended to the Bryan brothers?

Of course, they're making some sort of statement while on the lawns. Serena and Venus are going to play with golden racquets, copies of which to be sold benefiting the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. So... doubles and special racquets. We're bound to see some sort of crazy outfit... maybe a tribute to the New Zealand rubgy team. The exciting part is, of course, we don't know quite what to expect. They could crash in the first round, they could storm to the title, we just don't know. Maybe they'll do it again at Flushing Meadows. Heck, maybe Maria Sharapova will team with someone who can stand her.